$mu

Just putting this out here:

Recommended $MU on Oct 20 @ $29.69 (right here on this blog)

It’s up 11.5% to $33.08 since then (10 days).

image

I’m going to be replacing my stock with some PUTs. Perhaps 1/4th my position. +ve delta and theta.

And it turns out the scuttlebutt was right, the iPad Air 2 has 2Gb of RAM. (And a unexpected, to me at least, 3rd core)

Can anyone think of a reason why DRAM demand would fall from here on?

$MU, time to buy?

  1. Apple is one of the largest consumers of RAM (and a key customer for Micron via Elpida); It’s been tipped in the past, that Apple could make up as much as 25% of the world’s demand for DRAM.
  2. The iPad Air 2 looks like it will have twice as much DRAM as before (the iPad Air has 1GB)
  3. Apple’s been up’ing the base RAM across much of its Mac line
  4. And iPhone 6(+) sales are looking robust
  5. So, DRAM demand looks solid
  6. About 70% of Micron’s revenue is DRAM.
  7. Micron’s PE is 11.64; which is pretty low.
  8. The big risk is that while demand for DRAM is growing crazy fast, supply if growing equally fast.

 

Perhaps it’s time buy some (more) MU?

 

Disclosure: I am long $AAPL and $MU

too smart for our own good

Tags

,

*NOTE: This collection of short jokes will only make sense if you speak Hinglish.

Boy: What’s your Name??
Girl: Palak and you?
Boy: Paneer
*BLOCKED!!!*

Girl: Hello i am Khusbu
Boy: khusbu ka dusra naam bharosa agarbati….kone kone me khusbu faila de
*BLOCKED!!!*

Boy: Hi, whats ur name??
Girl: its Neha Singhal.
Boy: oh. . M also Single.
*BLOCKED!!!*

Girl: What’s Up?
Boy: Uttar Pradesh.
*BLOCKED!!!*

Girl: tu soya hai…??
Boy: Nahi…! Schezwan hu..!
*Gets Blocked Instantly* 

Girl: I’m free tommorow!
Boy: pehle kya paid thi??
*BLOCKED!!!*

Boy: Aaj mausam achha h mall chalte h.
Girl: waha kya karenge??
Boy: hawan karenge, hawan karenge.
*BLOCKED!!!*

Girl: see ya!
Boy: Var Ram chandar ki jai !
*BLOCKED!!!*

Girl: Have a Good Day.
Boy: No thank you… I like Parle-G more.
*BLOCKED!!!*

Girl: I need some Space.
Boy: Ok then go to Sonakshi Sinha’s forehead.
*BLOCKED!!!*

Girl puts up her status : “waiting for CHENNAIEXPRESS “.
Boy: COOLIE hai kya? ?
*BLOCKED!!!*

Boy: Thank you
Girl: My pleasure
Boy: My Bajaj Pulsar
*Reported as spam* *Blocked Forever*

After fight:

Girl: Tum mujhe manaate hi nahin!
Boy: Tum kya ho? Diwali ho? Ya Holi?
*BLOCKED!!!*

Apple getting hammered today (3-Sep-14)

Tags

Possible reasons:

iCloud Leak: A lot of celebs had nude selfies stolen from iCloud. (NSFW) example. (Apple PR). This story was catching fire for at least a couple of days before today though. For instance, Business Insider, dated Monday 1-Sep-14, 4.55am.

People could be jittery too; Apple has risen quite bit (~45%) this year. Perhaps people just want to get out before Sep 9?

Or it could be IFA
Basically every other device maker, showing off their latest & greatest

  • Samsung Galaxy Note 4 ‘egde’ looks interesting….
  • Gear S (the newest smart watch) also looks interesting…
  • Sony has a smart wearable too

Wonder if we’ll see a reversal tomorrow? Any other theories?

Be Specific

Diet

A blonde is terribly overweight, so her doctor puts her on a diet. “I want you to eat regularly for 2 days, then skip a day, and repeat this procedure for 2 weeks. The next time I see you, you’ll have lost at least 5 pounds.”

When the blonde returned, she shocked the doctor by losing nearly 20 pounds.

“Why, that’s amazing!” the doctor said, “Did you follow my instructions?”

The blonde nodded, “I’ll tell you though, I thought I was going to drop dead that 3rd day.”

“From hunger, you mean?”, asked the doctor.”

“No, from all that skipping.”

Moral: BE SPECIFIC

 

Wishes

A man got 2 wishes from GOD. He asked for the Best wine and Best Woman.

Next moment, he had the Best Wine and Mother Teresa next to him.

Moral: BE SPECIFIC

Funny One Liners…

  • Facebook: Roses are red, violets are blue, friend requests are awesome, but who the fuck are you??
  • Don’t feel bad. A lot of people have no talent.
  • Regular naps prevent old age, especially if you take them while driving.
  • I believe we should all pay our tax with a smile. I tried – but they  wanted cash.
  • You can’t buy love, but you pay heavily for it.
  • Laziness is nothing more than the habit of resting before you get tired.
  • Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote.
  • Having one child makes you a parent; having two makes you are a referee.
  • Marriage is a relationship in which one person is always right and the other is the husband!
  • A child’s greatest period of growth is the month after you’ve purchased new school uniforms.
  • Don’t marry the person you want to live with, marry the one you cannot live without, but whatever you do, you’ll regret it later.
  •   Marriage is give and take. You’d better give it to her or she’ll take it anyway.
  • My wife and I always compromise. I admit I’m wrong and she agrees  with me.
  • Those who can’t laugh at themselves leave the job to others.
  • Ladies first. Pretty ladies sooner.
  • A successful marriage requires falling in love many times, always with the same person.
  • You’re getting old when you enjoy remembering things more than doing them.
  • It doesn’t matter how often a married man changes his job, he still ends up with the same boss.
  • Real friends are the ones who survive transitions between address books.
  • Saving is the best thing. Especially when your parents have done it  for you.
  • Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools talk because they have to say something
  • They call our language the mother tongue because the father seldom gets to speak!
  • There is only one perfect child in the world and every mother has it.

Funny programming quotes

Tags

“If Java had true garbage collection, most programs would delete themselves upon execution.”
-Robert Sewell

s/Java/php|perl|whatever/g

 

“C++ : Where friends have access to your private members.”
- Gavin Russell Baker

 

“If debugging is the process of removing bugs, then programming must be the process of putting them in.” – Edsger W. Dijkstra

New MacBoook Air – uses cheaper/slower flash (SSD), Is CPU next?

Based on some benchmarks, it looks like the updated mid-2014 MacBook Air’s use slower flash. And they’re about $100 cheaper. Interesting because, Apple in the past, has always been about premium quality at a premium price. This is a substantial change (lower quality / price). Still above broader market averages, but it just feels ‘different’

Copying 6GB of files and folders took 28 seconds on last year’s 11-inch MacBook Air, but took nearly twice as long (54 seconds) on this year’s 11-inch model. With solid-state storage, lower capacity drives are often slower performers, and last year’s 11-inch had the higher capacity 256GB of flash. However, the new 11-inch model was also slower than last year’s 13-inch model with 128GB of flash storage.

Is this tantamount to an admission from Apple that they have a pricing problem in the MacBook range?

SSD replaced, is the CPU next?

If Apple perceives a pricing problem, this gives more credence to my idea that Apple could switch out of $INTC chips from the Air.

It’s clearly no secret that MacBook sales are not growing as fast as expected; sales seem to be stalling. … (4.13M units sold versus 4.07M units in 2Q last year)

Perhaps this is just confirmation bias and I’m reading more than I should Smile

Does an $intc short make sense?

Job postings suggest Amazon is planning to make its own ARM-based servers.

Google eyes Power chips

Software Engineer, ARM Server ($FB)

Looks like everyone is evaluating ARM servers; makes sense to me. Small, cheap servers that can saturate a 100Mbps network connection…

I think $INTC is under attack on all fronts:

Servers: ARM could make serious inroads (classic Clayton Christensen, the innovation looks like a toy, flies under the price umbrella till it’s too late for the incumbent, who cannot (or will not) self-cannibalize based on something that looks like a toy …)

Mobile: $QCOM, $AAPL, SMSN:LI rule here…

Desktop/Notebook: As I posit in my last article, $AAPL may make a move here (or not). But the fundamental thesis is the same. Desktops will move to from the Core variants to the Atom variants. They’re nearly good enough now. $MSFT providing Windows free for low-end boxen? It’ll only add to the fire.

If the move from Core/Xeon series is towards Atom – it will margin compression. If it’s towards ARM, it will mean substantial loss of market share. And $INTC is now setup to be a player at scale. Not sure if they can compete like a scrappy little startup anymore. I wonder if that’s left in the DNA?

As a long term $INTC fan – nearly every compute device I’ve bought had Intel Inside, this marks the end of an era to me….

When will the transition be visible in stock prices? Is much of this already priced in?

With $INTC trading near the top of it’s 52W range ($27.24) I think the risk (for a short) is quite low. Say about $4  = 15% ($31), which is where many analysts are calling it. The gain could easily be $7 = 26% ($20). I think it’s time to nibble a bit…

Red:

Short interest seems to be under 1% of the float, why is it so low?

PE ratio is just 14; multiple expansion is easily possible if $INTC shows signs of life in the mobile space. $INTC has been talking about a better radio, which seems to be a key weakness for them….

There could be a revival in the desktop space (unlikely IMHO).

The main risk I see is that the move could take longer than I can hold … will a move take more than a year?

Amber:

I just love the Xeon Phi (in abstract terms). Can’t see the whole point of Tesla/GPU compute if you can do cheap enough, dense enough full-featured cores. A whole bunch of ‘em. But then there’s the fun projects like Parallella. The software effort required for to write apps for GPU compute languages has never made sense to me.

Green:

NUC is a joke.

Atom in the Datacenter means severe margin compression. ‘Course an Atom doesn’t measure up to the raw compute of the Core / Xeon E series … but then the price differential is substantial.

What’s the $INTC bull case?

1) Success in mobile – scaling down the Ivy-Bridge architecture to be competitive in the 2W TDP space.

I think $INTC is competitive already – but it’s not leading to design wins because:

1.1) Low-end is extremely price-conscious; INTC realistically has not much   chance of competing in this space. Sure they can ‘bribe’ companies (contra-revenue as they’re calling it) to use INTC, but I think this is akin to buying eyeballs….pointless in the medium term.

1.2) High-end, there’s no market outside of AAPL, SMSN and neither is going to use INTC at the moment. Perhaps Nokia (err… Microsoft Mobile Oy) may give it a shot? Lenovo? maybe, but really I can’t see a third player (at any scale) for at least the next few years.

Can INTC use the leverage it has – in terms of desktop/server to bully Apple? Don’t think so — Apple is perhaps one the largest single customers for INTC, they need Apple more than Apple need INTC.

2) Datacenter growth continues un-abated, with Intel continuing to rule the roost, picking up another couple of percent in terms of market-share by destroying what little remains of AMD?

I certainly think Datacenter will continue to grow pretty fast. The cloud is more important than ever. Indeed INTC bet that growth in mobile would require equivalent growth in datacenter and the margins in datacenter were much fatter….(find quote from outgoing INTC CEO here…). Is the relationship linear?

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 195 other followers