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Infinite Curiosity

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Category Archives: aide-memoire

Baron Capital’s Ron Baron delves into the mind of Elon Musk

08 Tuesday Nov 2022

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, finance, trading, trends

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

investing, newsletter, tsla

Elon interview with Ron Baron Nov 2022

Elon’s longer term vision for Twitter is to use it as the base for his next generation identity & payments platform (apart from being a useful digital town square for ‘most’ people). Elon says that he knows how to make a better Paypal – a business that could be the world’s biggest/most valuable financial services company. He claims to have developed the blueprint during his days at ‘x.com’ (the pre-cursor to paypal); relatedly Twitter is owned by ‘X Holdings Inc’. Possibly related, the largest PE firm – Apollo Global is also focussed on identity & payments. This also links with something Dr. Harshvardhan (Trust Capital) alludes too – the value for transactions is not in the moving of money/entries in a ledger, but in fraud reduction through identity verification/KYC. The idea being that $MA, $V are not so much in the business of facilitating the movement of money as in the prevention of fraud. A bitcoin or Doge or similar network with an identity layer on top could be very interesting.

Elon claims: “Must be done for the future of civilization, without which nothing matters” which is plausible. Perhaps, Elon really thinks he has no choice but to act. He who owns Twitter controls who the next government is and that man is Elon.

Tweeted: Dec 12, 2022

My read is that Elon has switched from saying that $TSLA is over-valued to TSLA is undervalued, especially if as he believes autonomy adds 5x the value to cars without changing manufacturing cost. TSLA has 15% operating margin at the moment (gross margin: 27%); if cars can be sold for 5x current price, gross margin would expand to 85% (and given the size of the market, this would be larger than any other business in the world). In other interviews Elon has repeatedly said that he thinks TSLA will be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined (the two largest currently listed entities).

Edited: Nov 9 ’22: Elon sold an additional $4B of $TSLA (https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/elon-musk-sells-195-mln-tesla-shares-worth-395-bln-sec-filing-2022-11-09/). So my read was wrong; it looks like Elon thinks there is more pain to come. At some point his wealth could flip with the more of Elon’s net-worth coming from SpaceX & Starlink than from Tesla! (600B marketcap on Nov 9; Elon 14% => $84B).

Back of the envelope $TSLA model: At this point most TSLA analysts believe that TSLA will be selling between 10-20M cars by the end of 2030 (1.6M/year at the moment, with a 50% CAGR projected). At a 25% operating margin, and 20x terminal EV/EBIT $TSLA’s NPV is ~$990B. At at 40% operating margin, this increases to: $1.7T. Current market-cap: $655B (ATH: $1.2T)

Installed Base of Vehicles in the USA

AutomobileBusesTrucksMotorcyclesALL
104M0.5M159M8.2M271M
source:

Tesla semi & Cybertruck – should add substantial value by greatly expanding TAM.

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macOS Allow CLI binaries from third-party devs

01 Friday Apr 2022

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, tech

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

aapl

macOS Big Sur (apparently from macOS Catalina onwards) restricts binaries from third-parties. This sux when using cli apps like alfred-plugins.

Allow CLI app: spctl --add /full/path/to/my/app

Show all rules: spctl --list

Disable Gatekeeper: sudo spctl --master-disable

Another was to achive the same result: Hold ⌥ (option) when opening app in Finder; this will fail but give you the option to “open anyway”. If you forget to hold ⌥ or it does not work, try opening anyways, then open System Preferences -> Security & Privacy -> General; click the Open Anyway button.

Rating: Bad Apple.
Good intentions (methinks), but Apple’s gonna lock down macOS, just like it locks down iOS today. 😔. This is one more arrow in their quiver.

YouTube Revenue Stats (2010-2021)

18 Friday Feb 2022

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, finance, trading

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

investing, tam

YearRevenue
(USD Billion)
YOY Growth3 Yr CAGR10 Yr CAGR
20100.80
20111.3063%
20121.7031%
20133.1082%57%
20144.2035%48%
20155.5031%48%
20166.7022%29%
20178.1021%24%
201811.1037%26%
201915.1036%31%
202019.7030%34%37.76%
202128.8046%37%36.32%
sources: https://www.businessofapps.com/data/youtube-statistics/, others…

Workings: Google Sheet

Enterprise / Server Cloud Storage (not “Personal” cloud storage)

02 Saturday Jan 2021

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, programming, tech

≈ Leave a comment

Cheapest:

  • Backblaze B2: $5/Tb/mo (data transfer: $10/Tb)
  • Wasabi Storage: $5/Tb/mo (data transfer: ??)
  • OVH physical server: $3/Tb/mo (zero data transfer and other charges, but you do need to setup ZFS and some API layer software yourself).

Backblaze and Wasabi are both S3 compatible object stores. Note that data transfer can easily dominate storage charges, for even somewhat frequently accessed data. OVH is therefore much cheaper than it appears.

Other Options

  • google / gcloud: $10/Tb/mo
    • 1 Tb  => $10/mo ($120/pa)
    • Nearline (USA): 1000 * 0.01 => $10/mo (Using prices for nearline storage, South Carolina data center)
    • Nearline (Mumbai): 1000 * $0.016 = $16/mo ($200/pa)
    • Nearline has some charges if stored for less than 30d (min term). So could be a bit more than $10 (perhaps the same as S3’s intelligent tiering)
  • amazon / s3
    • 1 Tb => $12.5/mo  (between $12.5 and $20 because intelligent tiering will take some time to kick in).
    • Using prices for S3 Intelligent Tiering, USA data center: 1000 * 0.0125 => $12.5
  • Digital Ocean / volumes: (Block storage built on Ceph)
    • 1 Tb => $100/mo (approx 10x S3 prices, yiiikes.)
    • rsync’able storage
  • Digital Ocean / spaces: $0.02 gb/mo (S3 Compatible File Storage)
    • 1 Tb => $20/mo (about the same as S3 without intelligent tiering)
  • Backblaze B2: $5/Tb/mo
    • $10/Tb data transfer; cheaper than Amazon, but can still dominate.
    • S3 compatible API

Max value

Store HOT on Digital Ocean spaces (save on bandwidth)

Move older items to gcloud nearline or lower tier

#[[Hosting / Servers / Cloud Guide]]

“Free” SQL Databases

29 Tuesday Dec 2020

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, programming, tech

≈ Leave a comment

  • Heroku Postgres
    • Good & simple
  • IBM DB2: No credit card required, re-activate by email every 90 days
    • 200 MB of data storage
    • 15 simultaneous connections
    • Shared multitenant system
  • “Always free” Oracle Cloud instance (ptooie, slow as molasses) + apt install postgres
  • Supabase: Postgres, realtime, kinda like Firebase but with SQL and a real postgres instance. Free while in beta
  • Recommendations:
    • If “free” is the overriding factor, Heroku Postgres.
    • If you can live with a small cost, its simple & reliable to create a Digital Ocean Droplet using a ready made template. Example, this high quality template from Supabase: https://marketplace.digitalocean.com/apps/supabase-postgres. Use my referral link to get $100 free!!
    • Any cPanel hosting provider – some can be super low cost (see lowendhost.com)

Timeseries Databases

20 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, programming

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

choice, database

tl;dr use Timescale (open source extensions to postgres) – All the power, expressivity and ease of SQL w/horizontal scalability via partitioning. Like your own, Amazon RedShift. Faster and obvs. much cheaper than RedShit.

Other options:

  • InfluxDb (and cloud) – simplicity of ingest
  • ElasticSearch – needs a custom browse component (Kibana too complex)
  • Clickhouse, Vertica, Pilosa and others – “exotic” options, not really worth the effort, esp. given how good TimescaleDb is.

How to ingest:

  • v0: statsD -> influx (fast, cheap, quick, scalable)
  • v2 rsyslog (on each server) => central rsyslog => beanstalkd / kafka => (fan out) postgres (timescaledb) + mongo + influx + es

(Virtual) Server Pricing

04 Tuesday Jun 2019

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, tech, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

My goto services:

#FREE => Heroku (but only one “VM” is free, then $7/mo for a 512Mb “Dyno”)

Super Cheap => OVH
don’t have an affiliate program AFAIK, cuz they’re so low cost 😦

Blend => Digital Ocean
Use my aff. link to sign up, you get $100, I get $10, everyone’s happy 🙂
Here => https://m.do.co/c/728c8434e1b1

Digital Ocean
Special sauce: Incredible UI/UX, super fun to use. I’ve stopped thinking about it anymore, when I need a VM, I just go to DO.

Downsides: Many (probably most?) of the IPs are blacklisted for email. Most aren’t great exits for VPN services either for the same reason.

CLI tool (doctl) has pretty shit UX; could have been so much better. But still it’s there and works in a pinch
$5/GB of RAM
Linode$5/GB of RAM
OVH
Special sauce: The lowest cost option, but it’s Canada and Europe only. No SE Asia, no USA.
$1.68/GB of RAM
Yep it’s 66% cheaper than everyone else.
Vultr
Special sauce: awesome plans with $2.50 for a node with IPv6 only, 512Mb RAM.
$5/Gb
Amazon LightSail
Special Sauce: oh well, it’s the IBM of servers, so I might as well document it here: They have this clone of Digital Ocean, called LightSail, that s3cks, obvs. It’s the same price as Linode/DO/Vultr. Available in a few more locations than most of the above (incl. Mumbai; Digital Ocean has Bangalore).

When to use: All the rest of your infra is on Amazon Cloud and you’re pathethic.
$5/GB of RAM
Heroku #FREE (owned by Salesforce, not indie and chill like they pretend)
Incredibly good tooling; 1x 512Mb Dyno is free (1000 Hours/mo if you verify with a credit card). Gets very expensive very fast though — because you are subsidising the development of developer tools and the “free” tier.
$14-$50/Gb of RAM
Prices as of June 5, 2019.

I may update this page someday, but then again I may not 🙂 Bookmark if you’re adventurous (ctrl + d, or cmd + d)

Online IDEs for quick prototypes

09 Tuesday Apr 2019

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, lifehack, programming, tech

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

tools

#Frontend

Codepen.io: Really great for prototyping layouts and CSS in general.
Recently added Flutter support

  • React: ✔
  • Svelte: x
  • Flutter: ✔
  • JS: ✔ (but not very good …)
  • Private Pens: ✔ (Paid)
  • Secrets: x
  • Deploy to Netlify (or now.sh): x

Codesandbox.io: Webpack + VS Code as an online IDE

#Fullstack (include a VM/Container for development)

Glitch.com: #fullstack, #millenial, #awesome, #secrets

Glitch + Fly.io is very fly!

Repl.it: #fullstack, #secrets, #paid-for-private-repls
Has secrets (.env file that is only accessible by repl owner)

Runkit: The best way to hack nodejs ‘scripts’, IMHO
#backend

Codeanywhere, $8/mo

Stackblitz:
VSCode in the Cloud

#secrets  = .env file that is only accessible by repl owner

Archived

C9.io: Was really nice, but it’s been bought by Amazon; not free anymore, unless you use AWS 😭

Do you know others that should be on this list? Like, subscribe and Leave a comment below!

 

Top Extension Categories

09 Tuesday Apr 2019

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

(From IE Edge Chromium Store April 2019)

  • Adblockers and password managers
  • Education
  • Social and entertainment
  • Shopping
  • Productivity
  • For developers

Gmail iOS URL Schemes

10 Monday Sep 2018

Posted by Grynn in aide-memoire, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Open specific message

googlegmail:///cv=13eafcee7cc82901/accountId=1&create-new-tab

Open compose message

googlegmail:///co?subject=<subject text>&body=<body text>&to=

For Google Inbox use inbox-gmail:/// instead of googlemail:///

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Recent Posts

  • Baron Capital’s Ron Baron delves into the mind of Elon Musk
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  • macOS Allow CLI binaries from third-party devs

Twitter Stream

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